WSOP 2012: What the math says for Team Pro on Day 5

wsop-130x100.pngThe math is undeniable. I wish we could change it, but we can't. In poker--in the World Series of Poker--math is religion. The math says two Team PokerStars Pros are going to make it to Day 6 .That's just how it works. The rate of attrition has almost always been consistent. Today we have four Team Pros in the field. Tomorrow, the math says, we will have two.

Today, 282 players are sitting down in the Amazon Room. Four of them fly the flag of the big red spade. If you've paid any attention at all over the past few days, you know that they are some of the biggest stars in the game. Here's how the stack up.

Vanessa Selbst -- 1,678,000
Jan Heitmann -- 788,000
Marcel Luske -- 603,000
Daniel Negreanu -- 302,000


Every one of those players is guaranteed $38,000 right now. But, let's be clear about this: none of these people care much about making it to the next pay jump. Not one of them is going to feel the least bit satisfied unless they survive until tomorrow. It won't be easy. The math is hard to fight. Two simply must go.

As of right now, Selbst is the only one who looks like a lock to advance. Negreanu seems the most at risk. But if you were to ask any of them, you'll find that not one of them is scared. As Negreanu tweeted, "Started day 4 with 22 bbs. I'll start day 5 with 25 bbs. No big deal. Been here before. I'll be tough to bust. That is all."


And so we venture in to the Amazon Room to see if our math evangelism is warranted, or if Team Pros are even better than the numbers than we believe.

The cards are in the air. And so is the math.

Brad Willis
@BradWillis in World Series of Poker