As the game of poker grows increasingly toward the realm of the mainstream, the study of random tournament statistics becomes more and more in depth. For instance, as we noted this summer, Team PokerStars Pro Joe Cada will survive this year as the WSOP champion with the fewest letters in his name (a record he stole in 2009 from Stu Ungar and Huck Seed).
One study that has not yet been performed in depth is the frequency of bust-outs in the level immediately following the dinner break as compared to the other levels. There is many a poker pundit who will insist a healthy repast will inspire players to get their chips in the middle. As yet, however, we have not seen a statistician really attack the question. (We do have the venerable and once-mysterious Kevin Mathers in our midst tonight, so we might bother him to get on the issue tonight).
We bring it up, of course, because in the past hour, the seven remaining players have had their dinners and come back to play. And what’s happened since then? Well, not much.
It seemed in the beginning that the only person to get the dinner-break shakes was Jonathan Duhamel. Not content to let Michael Mizrachi sit on the chip lead, Duhamel came back from the break with his three-bet button at the ready. On three consecutive hands, he either raised or re-raised to take down the pot without a flop.
Jason Senti, meanwhile, found himself on the other side of the fun. More than once, Senti’s raises found re-raises, and Senti was forced to put his cards in the muck. It’s left him, once again, on the bottom of the chip counts.
The upshot of all of it is that in the first hour after dinner, we saw exactly zero bust-outs and no called all-ins. Upon the return from dinner, I foolishly set the over/under on our finish time tonight at 2:15am. That now seems naive and painfully optimistic. It’s forcing us to recall last year’s November Nine opening day that saw us stumbling into a world where the Sunday football games were about to begin.
WSOP media regulations allow us to post every hour, and so it is our habit to do so, regardless of whether there is new to report. In this case, there’s not much. We do, however, have fresh chip counts straight from the mouth of tournament director Jack Effel. They show us that the battle right now is between Duhamel and Michael Mizrachi.
Jason Senti 15,750,000
Joseph Cheong 20,025,000
John Dolan 19,200,000
Jonathan Duhamel 53,000,000
Michael Mizrachi 61,375,000
John Racener 26,975,000
Fillipo Candio 22,475,000