Bad Beats and Variance

You will have realized by now that poker is a game of skill. Making the correct decisions in every situation will lead to long-term success. The problem is that even if you play correctly, making all the right moves, you can still lose hands by getting bad beats.

Worse still, these bad beats can accumulate and become downswings. The key is to learn how to handle situations like this, and to make sure that your game is not adversely affected by factors outside of your control.

The short-term effect of luck in poker – both good and bad – is known as “variance”. Solid players can handle bad beats, accept variance as part of the game of poker and work on reducing its influence on their own game.

What Are Bad Beats in Poker?

A “bad beat” is the name given to an occurrence in poker where a significantly worse hand beats a better one through fortune alone. The person suffering the bad beat plays the hand correctly, gets their money into the pot when they were a long way ahead, but is still beaten with the turn of a card when their opponent catches up.

Everyone has a bad beat story. You’ll hear them from players chatting at break time or be sent videos and screenshots from friends. Not all bad beats are equal, though.

A hand is only truly a bad beat when it is a clear favorite and gives your opponent very little chance of catching up. Some inexperienced players will wrongly tell “bad beat” stories in which their hand was only a marginal favorite. See the following examples:

Example: A genuine bad beat

• Player 1 has A♥ A♦ . Player 2 has A♣ K♥ . Both players are all-in on a flop of 7♣ J♥ J♠ Player 1 is 98% favorite.
• Player 2 can only win if the turn and river are either the two remaining kings to make a full house, or a queen and a ten to make a straight. The pot would also be split if the turn and river are both jacks to make four-of-a-kind jacks with an ace-kicker. All of these scenarios are highly unlikely.
• If the turn is K♦ and the river is K♠ , then Player 2 wins the pot and Player 1 can legitimately claim a bad beat!

Example: Not such a bad beat

• Player 1 has 7♠ 6♠ in late position and pushes all-in before the flop with a relatively short stack. Player 2 has a very good hand in A♥ K♣ and calls in the big blind.
• The board runs out 3♦ 7♣ 9♥ 10♥ Q♠ . Player 1 wins the hand with a pair of sevens.

Despite A♥ K♣ being a strong hand, it is only around a 62% favorite before the flop and will still lose the hand one in every three times. This isn’t enough to truly constitute a bad beat.

It is interesting to note that players often remember bad beats more than situations when luck was on their side, and less so when they are the one giving out the bad beat.

What Is Variance in Poker?

Variance is an interesting and complex mathematical concept that describes the natural fluctuations in outcomes and results caused by the element of chance, the randomness that is a part of poker. In simple terms, anything can happen in the short term and sometimes the cards don’t fall your way.

In the short term, you may win one session and lose the next few. Or you may win a few days in a row, or go a full week without leaving the tables with profit. In the long run, the skill factor prevails and variance evens out. But dealing with the swings can be emotionally challenging.

Why Do Bad Beats and Variance Happen?

Poker is a game of incomplete information and chance. You can never know for sure what your opponent is holding or what cards are going to be dealt next. Even if you get your chips in the middle when you have the best cards, there’s still a chance you’ll have the losing hand by the river.

The randomness of poker makes bad beats and variance unavoidable. However, some types of poker have more variance than others:

• Tournaments – Tournaments involve more variance than cash games because you need to run deep to get a decent score and escalating blinds force you take marginal spots.
• Field size – Larger field sizes increase variance. You stand to win larger sums less often, so losing streaks are not uncommon in large field MTTs. Smaller field MTTs or SNGs have less dramatic swings.
• Cash games – Cash games have less variance because each hand is played for cash and you don’t need to win all the chips on the table to get a decent score. You’ll still experience the same number of bad beats, just with less variance overall.
• Opponents – Variance is impacted by the skill level of your opposition. Against skilled players at the higher stakes, you’ll have to take more marginal spots and less EV spots, which makes for higher variance. Aggressive opponents will also increase variance by frequently putting you in all-in situations.
• Your own skill level – Your own skill level is also a factor when it comes to variance. If your edge over the field is small, you’ll experience dramatic swings. If you have a huge edge, you’ll be getting your chips in well ahead and boosting your win rate. This is the element you can actually control.

 Understanding Downswings and Upswings

A downswing describes a period in your poker career when you are making losses despite playing correctly. The cards do not fall in your favor and you are often getting bad beats, losing pots you were favorite to win. It’s a horrific time when nothing seems to be going your way and it can seem like strange forces are conspiring against you.

In reality, downswings in poker are an extreme, yet entirely natural expression of variance. The pendulum will swing back in your favor if you can continue to make the correct moves and play profitably, even if it doesn’t feel like it at the time.

At times like this, it is vital that you keep your emotions in check, manage your bankroll carefully and avoid making irrational changes to your game. We’ll cover all of this advice in more detail throughout the article.

Upswing

Upswing is the opposite of a downswing; a period of time where you experience an incredible run of good cards at the right time, leading to above average profits. When things are this good, it makes playing poker fun and gives your game a confidence boost.

Upswings can also be dangerous. They can cause you to start overestimating your abilities, playing too many hands and bluffing too often. It is easy to start thinking that you can do no wrong and start making mistakes without realizing them. This too should be avoided.

The most damaging mistake to make during an upswing is to start playing at a higher level, simply because you have made a significant amount of money in a short space of time. This can be disastrous, as your good run can end at any moment. Even worse, you could quickly risk losing your bankroll by playing out of your depth.

Bankroll management is therefore just as vital during an upswing as it is during a downswing.

The Psychological Impact of Bad Beats and Variance

One of the most difficult aspects of poker, even more troublesome perhaps than getting your head around the strategy, is dealing with the frustrations and emotions that come with experiencing brutal bad beats and downswings.

“Tilt” is the emotional state that makes it impossible for you to play your best poker. It can be triggered by bad beats or downswing. Whenever you are letting your emotions shroud your decisions, whether that’s anger, frustration or a desire for revenge, you are on tilt.

Tilt can cause you to abandon your correct strategy and begin making plays you know to be poor. It throws you off your A-game, which leads to even more losses.

Learn to recognize your own triggers and signs of tilt, which could include:

• Feeling angry, impatient, or frustrated
• Suddenly changing your playing style
• Making outlandish raises or shoves with mediocre hands
• Chasing hands or bets you normally wouldn’t

Tilt can quickly make a losing session much worse, so it’s important that you keep your emotions in order. If you find yourself emotionally affected while playing poker, it is encouraged to take a break as you recover to an optimal state to continue playing.

How to Handle Bad Beats and Avoid Tilt

The best way to recover after a bad beat is to remember that you will make money from your opponent in the long run if they keep making the same bad plays.

The laws of probability and mathematics mean that a player who keeps putting all of their chips at risk with a worse hand will lose in the long run, which actually makes that player the type you want at your table. As the author Matthew Hilger said: “Bad beats are a good poker player’s friend.”

Accepting that bad beats are a part of the game and even learning to love them is the first step to overcoming the psychological harm that they can do. Here are some more tips:

• Focus on making correct plays – Don’t focus so much on the outcome of hands. Instead, be glad that you got your chips in the middle with the best of it and focus on continuing to make strong plays.
• Learn from every hand – Instead of getting angry about bad beats, exploit your opponent’s weakness for maximum profit. Take notes on how they played the hand so you can gain even more of an edge.
• Use mental techniques – If it helps, find and use mental techniques that work for you to calm yourself down, such as breathing, meditation or listening to a relaxing song.
• Take breaks – If you feel yourself go on tilt after a bad beat, consider taking a short break, even if it means sitting out a few hands. If you’re on a downswing and it’s getting to you, be prepared to take a longer break and come back with a fresh mindset.
• Play your A-game – A downswing may cause a loss of confidence and doubt your own abilities, which can prompt you to make irrational changes to your style. Don’t abandon your usual strategy. However, if you’re doubting yourself, reviewing tournaments and analyzing hand histories will keep you on track.
• Bankroll management – Another way you can protect yourself against tilt and the psychological impact of downswings is with bankroll management. We’ll cover this in the next section.

Bankroll Management: Your Shield Against Variance

Your “bankroll” is the amount of money you have set aside away from personal finances to play poker online. Bankroll management refers to playing games that are well within your bankroll so that you can cushion yourself against losses.

As an extreme example, imagine playing one tournament for your entire bankroll. Yes, it would be great if you won, but the chances are you will lose the game and go broke. Instead, you want to have lots of buy-ins for the stakes that you are playing, such as:

• 50-100 buy-ins or more for tournaments
• 200+ buy-ins for bigger fields MTTs
• 40+ max buy-ins for cash games

Having a decent number of buy-ins for your chosen stakes shields you against variance. It also removes some of the psychological pressure of winning or losing individual games, as well as the emotional stress of bad beats. Bankroll management sets you up for thinking about poker as a long-term game.

Solid bankroll management is vital during a downswing, as there is a risk that you could lose your entire bankroll by making foolish mistakes. If you are suffering a downswing that impacts your bankroll, you should move down in stakes or play fewer tables in order to avoid bigger losses.

Bad beats in online poker versus live poker

There is a common misconception that there are more bad beats dealt online than in the live game, but this is not true. Statistically speaking, they occur at the same frequency whether you play online or in a casino.

It may seem like you experience more bad beats online and you probably do. That’s because hands are dealt faster and you can be at multiple tables, meaning you’ll see a lot more hands per hour when playing online poker. The more hands you see, the more you’ll see every scenario, including bad beats.

Conclusion

Variance is a factor in poker over which we have no control. It can play a big role in the short run, but skilled players will always prevail in the long game. The ability to handle bad beats, variance and downswings by avoiding tilt and using bankroll management are skills that will serve you well long term.

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