Poker Flop Strategy: How to Evaluate Your Hand After the Flop

After the flop is dealt, you need to ask yourself a very important question: Has the flop increased or decreased the value of your hand?

You now have five cards to make an assessment of your hand: your two hole cards and the three community cards. But remember, the flop may also have helped your opponent. You’ll need to consider factors like your opponent’s range, board texture, position and stack sizes before deciding on how to act.

This lesson will focus on evaluating your hand after the flop is dealt and weighing it up against your opponent’s range.

What to Think About When the Flop is Dealt

When the flop is dealt, you should immediately consider the following factors:

• Does the flop improve your hand?
• What is the board texture and how does the flop interact with your opponent’s range?
• How does your hand compare to your opponent’s range?
• Is your hand weak, vulnerable or strong?
• What turn and river cards can help or hurt you?

Determining Hand Strength

Firstly, let’s look at determining the strength of your hand. After the flop, hands tend to fall into one of three categories: made hands, drawing hands and unmade hands.

Made Hands

A made hand is one that has improved significantly on the flop and, for all intents and purposes, is complete. It’s unlikely you’ll hit outs on the next street and your hand has only a slight possibility of further improvement.

For example, if you had a pair of pocket Aces preflop and another Ace comes on the flop, you now have top set. Your hand can only realistically be improved by seeing the final remaining Ace, which is highly unlikely, or when the board pairs to give you a Full House.

The important point to note is that made hands are not always as strong as a set of aces. You can divide made hands into three separate groups:

Monster hands

Monster hands are extremely strong and unlikely to be beaten. This might be the nuts, close to it, or a hand that is way ahead of your opponent’s range.  With monster hands, your only real concern is getting maximum value.

Examples:
A♠ J♠ on a flop of A♥ J♦ 2♣
A♠ A♥ on a flop of A♠ 8♦ 3♦
J♠ Q♦ on a flop of 10♠ 9♦ 8♣

Strong hands

Strong hands are likely ahead, but can still be behind against some of your opponent’s possible holdings or vulnerable to being beaten on later streets. Examples of strong hands on the flop include top pair with top kicker, or an overpair to the board.

Examples:
Q♠ Q♦ on a flop of 10♠ 4♣ 4♦
A♠ K♠ on a flop of A♦ 10♦ 4♠

Marginal hands

Marginal hands are made hands that are ahead some of the time but are close to being folds. They are right on the border of being playable, depending on the action. These include hands like top pair weak kicker and middle pair.

Examples:
A♠ 10♦ on a flop of K♠ 10♥ 2♠
J♣ J♦ on a flop of Q♣ 8♦ 3♥

Drawing Hands

Drawing hands are hands that have connected with the flop but still need to improve. You have equity and outs, but you’re not there yet as you still need to hit certain cards to improve.

For example, if you have J♥ 10♥ , you will be delighted to see a flop of Q♠ 9♥ 2♥ because you have four cards to both a straight and a flush.

Not all draws are so strong. Draws vary in strength and playability:

Very strong draws

Very strong draws are combos that can hit lots of outs, such as flush draw and straight draw combos, or nut flush draws with overcards. In some cases, a very strong draw can even be ahead of top pair on the flop in terms of equity.

Examples:
Q♠ J♠ on a flop of 10♠ 9♠ 2♦
A♥ 2♥ on a flop of A♦ 5♠ J♠
K♠ Q♠ on a flop of A♠ 10♠ 4♣

Strong draws

Open-ended straight draws and strong flush draws usually have around 30-35 percent equity against top pair, along with other factors like implied odds that makes them playable.

Examples:
10♠ 9♦ on a flop of A♠ 8♦ 7♣
K♣ Q♣ on a flop of A♣ 6♣ 5♦

Weak draws

Weak draws include drawing to the bottom end of straights or low flushes, as well as gutshots and backdoor draws that have very little equity on the flop.

Examples:
7♠ 6♦ on a flop of 8♠ 9♠ Q♣
8♣ 7♣ on a flop of K♣ 9♠ 2♣

Unmade Hands

One of the unfortunate realities about poker is that you see many more unmade hands than made or drawing hands. On average, you’ll only connect with the flop around one-third of the time. The rest of the time, you’ll miss.

This doesn’t mean your unmade hand is necessarily bad. Sometimes High hands such as Ace-high and King-high can win the pot by showdown, but they will not be able to stand up to much pressure if facing a bet.

For the most part, though, an unmade hand on the flop is pretty much worthless. The only way to turn the hand into a winner is to make a high-risk bluff and it’s unlikely you’ll want to go too far with foolish bluffs on the flop.

If your hand is unmade, badly beaten and faced with a bet, fold it and wait for a chance to hit something stronger. All poker players – including the very best – spend a lot of time folding their cards.

Absolute vs. Relative Hand Strength

Once you have thought about how the flop interacts with your range, you’ll know your absolute hand strength. This is how strong your hand is in isolation, according to the poker hand rankings. For example, you might have top pair or a flush draw.

Relative hand strength is how strong your hand is compared to your opponent’s range on the board. This is an important distinction to make.

For example, if you have top pair top kicker on a dry board against a player who hasn’t shown much aggression, then your hand is likely very strong relative to your opponent’s range. With the same hand on a three-flush board faced with a raise, your top pair suddenly seems vulnerable.

In poker, your hand strength always needs to be considered in relative terms. So, once you have assessed your own hand on the flop, it’s time to move on to reading other players.

Hand Reading on the Flop

Although you cannot tell precisely what cards your opponents are holding, you can estimate how the flop interacts with their hand based on preflop ranges, board texture and flop action.

Board Texture

The first distinction when looking at a flop is between so-called dry flops and draw heavy (or wet) flops. Dry boards offer no possible draws, while wet flops contain a lot of possible draws.

Examples of dry boards:

A♠ 7♦ 2♣
3♣ 3♠ K♥
10♠ 2♥ 6♣

Examples of draw heavy boards:

10♦ 8♠ 7♠
A♣ Q♣ 10♦
5♠ 4♦ 6♣

On the dry flops, it is impossible for any player to have picked up an immediate flush draw or an open-ended straight draw. There are no connected cards on any of these flops, so you know that a player will either have a made hand or an unmade hand at this point.

By contrast, the next three “wet” flops all have enormous amounts of potential. In the first instance, a player with two spades in the hole has a flush draw, while any nine in a player’s hand gives them an open-ended straight draw. If a player has, say, A♠ 9♠ they have a straight and a flush draw, which puts them in a very strong position that is often ahead of top pair.

Board Texture and Vulnerability

Take a look at the examples below. This shows how the texture of the flop can affect the vulnerability of your hand.

Board texture example:

You hold A♠ K♥ in early position and raise to 3 BB. Two players in late position call your bet.

Scenario 1: The flop comes A♥ 7♦ 3♣ which is a dry flop.
Scenario 2: The flop comes A♥ 10♦ 9♦ which is a wet flop that contains a lot of draws.

In both instances, you flop top pair top kicker and should make a continuation bet. However, only on the dry board can you feel confident that your holding will remain strong throughout the turn and river. On a wet board, strong draws are more likely to complete on later streets. This makes your hand more vulnerable.

You can also reduce your opponent’s range of hands much more effectively on a dry board. With no draws, they must have also caught some of the flop to want to continue with the hand. On a wet board, other players may have any number of draws or combos. They could be calling your flop bet to improve on later streets or raise as a semi-bluff.

Tips for Playing Dry and Wet Boards

You’ll need to adapt your plan for the hand based on how the board texture impacts your relative hand strength and vulnerability. Here are some tips for both:

Tips for Playing Dry Flops

• Relative hand strength – Hands like top pair top kicker are basically monsters on a dry board, while even weaker top pairs and middle pairs can play well at showdown.

• C-bet frequently – If you were the preflop raiser, you can bet again a large percentage of the time on a dry flop, adding more bluffs to your betting range to account for the fact that there are fewer strong hands and draws in your opponent’s range.
• Smaller sizing – Use a smaller sizing on dry boards, as you won’t have to protect against draws and doing so allows you to entice some weaker calling hands when you have value.
• Pot control – With medium strength hands, you can use pot control by checking or flat calling one or two streets on a dry board, without the risk of giving away free cards to draws.
• Trapping – Trapping is only really a viable option on dry boards, so you can take that betting line occasionally with very strong made hands. Just be aware that other players could also be trapping.

Tips for Playing Wet Flops

• Relative hand strength – Hands like top and middle pair go down in relative strength because of the possibility of strong draws and combos. Nutted made hands or hands that draw to the nuts become more valuable.
• Protect strong hands – Wet flops are not the time to slowplay. Bet with your strong hands and never slowplay. Use a value-heavy range.
• Larger bet sizing – Use a larger bet sizing of two-thirds to three-quarters of the pot to make sure that anyone who wants to draw pays above the odds.
• Semi-bluff – Wet boards are ideal for semi-bluffing with draws. Look for opportunities to raise or check-raise, while being mindful that opponents might do the same.
• Caution – Exercise caution when draws complete. A top pair hand, or even a set, can soon become weak if your opponent’s range consists mostly of flushes and straights.