You’ll often hear good poker players talk about the “long run”. This can sound like an unreal concept to beginners, who see the results of every individual game as being indicative of their performance.

As a game of part chance and part skill, short term results don’t really tell us much in poker. Anything can happen in the short term.

To get any idea of your actual win rate (or loss rate), you’ll need a massive sample of hands. But the long view isn’t just about calculating win rate. It’s also a way of staying mentally strong in the face of crushing downswings.

In this article we explain why good poker players always think about poker in terms of their long-term results.

Variance

Statistical variance is a mathematical term used to describe how far individual results vary from the average. It is naturally inherent in poker and there’s absolutely nothing you can do about it.

To illustrate variance to yourself, take a coin and flip it ten times. You know that the odds of the coin landing on either heads or tails is 50/50. Yet it’s quite possible that the coin will land on one side more often than the other.

Sometimes, when flipping a coin ten times, you’ll get results that vary wildly from the 50/50 average, landing eight or nine times on one side.

This is statistical variance in action. In the long term, these results will even out. The bigger the sample size, the more likely it is that you’ll run closer to the average, expected result of half heads and half tails.

If you want to take this experiment one step further, go ahead and flip the coin 100 times, or better still 1,000 times. It might not run exactly 50/50, but it’ll be closer the more you flip it – i.e. the bigger the sample.

The same thing is happening in poker, but with cards instead of coins. The difference is that not every situation is a 50/50 coinflip. Even if you get your hand in ahead, you can still lose (or win) more than your fair share in the short term.

When short term results deviate from the average in poker, you’ll experience either an upswing or a downswing. We tend to remember the downswings because they are brutal and challenging.

So, if you’re serious about gauging your actual skill level and win rate, you’ll need a huge sample.

What is the long term in poker?

Statistics are very strange. So there’s no way you can guarantee they will run alongside their average expected values. Even with a huge sample. The good news is, though, that the bigger the sample, the more likely it is that the results will average out.

In other words, the bigger the better when it comes to sample size. To give you an idea of what that means in practical terms, a few thousand hands of poker is nothing in the grand scheme of things.

A sample of at least 100,000 hands in cash games is the recommended amount to work out your win rate with any accuracy.

In tournaments, the “long term” depends on the size of the field. In large field MTTs, you’ll need a much bigger sample than in smaller tourneys. Generally, even if smaller fields, you’ll need at least 1,000 – 2,000 games to reach anywhere near the long run.

With these sample sizes, you can be fairly confident that your results are starting to reflect your actual skill level and win rate.

This is something that good players are concerned with. They want to know how they are doing, beyond the chance element of the game that impacts their short-term results.

The poker mindset

Taking the long view in poker is not only about calculating win rate. It’s also about cultivating a mindset that will get you through the harder times at the tables.

The short-term mentality tells you that you “should have won that hand” because you were ahead. It doesn’t consider statistics or variance. So, when you do get bad beat, which will happen, it’s going to hurt. And when you go on a downswing, you won’t be in the least bit prepared for it.

By cultivating a long-term focus on the game, you take some of the stress out of bad beats. Yes, it still hurts, but now you know that it’s all part of poker. Ultimately, you’re thankful that your opponent has just made such a costly error that you will make you money in the long run.

The same goes for downswings. If you’re calibrated for short term results, you won’t be able to comprehend the “unfair” nature of downswings. For many aspiring players, their first downswing is the end of their poker journey – either they run out of funds or they run out of patience.

If you’re looking at the long term, then you know the downswing will inevitably pass. It can last a very long time, but it can’t last forever. This allows you to continue focusing on what really matters, which is playing your very best strategy.

In poker, your long-term average win rate is the sum of your opponent’s mistakes, minus the sum of your own mistakes. Taking a long-term view allows you to keep looking at it this way instead of getting rocked by every pot you lose.

Bankroll management

Given everything we’ve discussed about statistical variance, and the long-term nature of results, it makes sense to take a long-term view when it comes to bankroll.

Anything can and will happen in the short term, so it’s important that your poker funds can take a hit.

As an extreme example, imagine having a $1,000 bankroll and putting it all on one MTT. Even if you’re the best player in the field, there’s a high probability that you’ll go bust and then you won’t have anything left to fire up another game.

Now take the same $1,000 bankroll and consider playing $1 and $2 games. Now, you can afford to play 500-1,000 games, which should be enough to get you close to what is considered the “long run” in tournament poker. In other words, it’s more likely you’ll see something close to your actual win rate.

It’s impossible to take the long view if your bankroll can’t sustain a run at your stakes. That’s why good players also exercise bankroll management.